โอกาสและความท าทายของประเทศไทยในอนาคต

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1 โอกาสและความท าทายของประเทศไทยในอนาคต Thailand 22 Apirak Kosayodhin Apirak Kosayodhin Advisor to Prime Minister of Thailand

2 Thailand has significantly changed in the past 2 years Improved quality of life and a shift away from agriculture 1988 Thailand 28 Singapore Malaysia Econom mic Exports of G&S (% of GDP) Agriculture/ GDP Industry/ GDP Services/ GDP GDP per head ($ at PPP) Net Direct Investment flow/ GDP , , , , Social Mortality rate, under -5 (per 1,) Life expectancy at birth (years) School enrollment, primary (% net) Income shared held by lowest 2% N/A 68 N/A En nviron mental Agricultural land (% of land area) Energy used (kg of oil equiv/ capita) Electric power consumption (kwh / capita) , , ,56 2,389 8,57 3,262 Note: World bank, EIU 1 UNESCO data from 22

3 What awaits Thailand? Comparison to selected countries Countries with similar profile are up to ~1x wealthier than Thailand Nominal GDP (USD bn) 4, Potential to triple per-capita income? $ at PPP 4, 2, 2,592 2, Nominal GDP , 35,1 31,36 26,4 8,34 14,11 France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia Sector mix may need to be shaped Percentage of GDP Agriculture Industry Service France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia % of GDP 2 1 Domestic sectors may grow in importance France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia Note: Countries with similar population size and geographic size Source: EIU 28 data

4 Thailand more competitive than Philippines and Indonesia, but lags behind Malaysia Competitiveness - Overall IMD 28 Ranking in selected Asian countries IMD Overall Ranking Infrastructure Worst Economic performance Ranking Worst Government 1 efficiency Worst Best 4 2 Malaysia improved ranking from 22 to 19 while Thailand ranking lowered from 25 to 27 Indonesia Philippines Thailand Malaysia China Singapore Hong Kong China Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia Worst Business efficiency Hong Kong Singapore

5 Thailand's major strengths are low cost of living and healthy environment for employment Competitiveness - Strengths IMD competitive ranking analysis of major strengths Healthy environment for employment 2 (24) Gap in ranking between ee overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor score (+1 1 ) Appropriate consumption tax rates (22) Low inflation and cost of living (23) Mgmt practice (8) Key strengths Thailand can leverage Economic performance Government efficiency Attitudes and values (7) Business efficiency Infrastructure Low Low Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity 1. Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 1 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report Healthy environment for employment contains fair compensation level, high employment rate and high labor force number and business friendly regulations

6 Infrastructure and business efficiency identified as major weaknesses of Thailand IMD competitive ranking analysis of major weaknesses Competitiveness - Weaknesses Low GDP per capita (-21) Low productivity & efficiency (-21) est priority gap to address Gap in ranking between overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor (-1 1 ) score Low direct investment stocks abroad (-2) Tech low penetration of internet users (-16) Societal framework (-9) Insufficient health quality 2 (-2) Insufficient education quality (-16) Insufficient scientific infrastructur e (-1) Economic performance Government efficiency Finance: bank efficiency (-4) Public finance (-2) Basic infrastructu re (-2) Business legislation (-2) Business efficiency Infrastructure Low Low Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity 1. Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 1 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report Weakness in low number of care providers

7 Several mega-trends with high relevance on Thailand's future development People Environment Business 1 Aging society 6 Climate changes 8 Shifting economic leadership to Asia 2 3 Urbanization Health & safety concerns 7 Scarcity and deteriorating quality of resources 9 Stronger focus on governance 4 International ti mobility 5 Connectivity it

8 SWOT analysis for Thailand shows several opportunities for action Competitiveness analysis Mega-trend analysis Strengths Central physical location -quality service Sufficiency and diversity of agricultural resource Low inflation & cost of living Healthy environment for employment Weaknesses Insufficient scientific infrastructure Low productivity it and efficiency Insufficient education quality Insufficient health quality Opportunities Aging society (developed countries) International mobility Connectivity Shifting economic leadership to Asia Health and safety concerns Threats Aging society (Thailand) Climate change Scarcity and deteriorating ti quality of resources (water, energy, food, soil) Urbanization Strong focus on governance Strategic focus "What Thailand should be known for" Strategic pillars "How Thailand should operate" Strategic foundation "What Thailand needs to have" Source: NESDB 257 Vision Paper, IMD competitiveness, BCG Analysis

9 Potential 22 vision for Thailand Transformation from commodity supplier to high value, branded, green economy Strategic Focus " What Thailand should be known for" value-added economy 1 World's food supplier 2 Leader in creative products 3 Magnet for cultural & eco-tourism high-value added services 4 Regional logistics hub Strategic pillars "How Thailand should operate" Open economy with high social mobility Alternative energy & green technology Culture of tech/ entrepreneur -ship & excellence Knowledge & creativity based communities World-class work ethics & governance Foundation "What Thailand needs to have" quality physical & technological infrastructure quality & wide access to social services Sufficiency & sustainable resource management Prudent fiscal & monetary policy

10 Transformation towards sustainable higher value green economy and well-being society National agenda is key to drive transformation Thailand Today Thailand 22 Commodity products / OEM er value-branded products Basic use of rich cultural heritage in commercialization of products and services Add value Cultural l tourism and heritagebased product / services Basic infrastructure Build brand er-quality physical and technological infrastructure Invest in Drive GDP Growth infrastructure and green energy Sustainable development / well-being society Leverage Thai heritage

11 โอกาสและความท าทายของประเทศไทยในอนาคต Thailand 22 Apirak Kosayodhin Apirak Kosayodhin Advisor to Prime Minister of Thailand